Two crises: Mexico and Greece

February 19, 2012

A post by Dave Backus and Tim Kehoe

We talked last night about how differently the crises played out in Mexico and Greece.  The question, of course, is why, but we’ll leave that one for you.  Here are some of the specifics — and keep in mind that Mexico’s economy is roughly five times the size of Greece’s.  

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Sargent’s American history lesson

February 3, 2012

The European Union is one of the grand experiments of our time,with countries that had been at war earlier in the 20th century agreeing to closer economic ties.   These ties have included, so far, free trade, free mobility of labor, and even (for some) a common currency.  The question, then and now, is which activities to manage centrally, and which to leave up to local control.

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Starbucks in Norway

January 31, 2012

A post by Stan Zin

I saw in the news today that Starbucks has entered a joint venture with Tata, one of India’s most respected business groups, to open coffee shops in India. I don’t know if India has an urgent need for coffee, but it reminded me that international ventures often run across obstacles that wouldn’t cross your mind.  One of my favorite stories concerns Starbucks’ ill-fated attempt to enter the Norwegian market.

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FAA and financial regulation revisited

January 31, 2012

A post by Larry White

Paul Romer’s post about the differences between the FAA and financial regulators got me thinking.  Are the latter so bogged down in detail that they miss the point?  Do they lack bottom-line responsibility?

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Science on the Internet

January 26, 2012

A post by Paul Romer

Tyler Cowen recently pointed to a paper of mine on financial regulation and the dynamics of rules that I wrote for the IMF.  Dave Backus and John Cochrane then blogged their thoughtful reactions.  I take up the discussion about financial regulation in a separate post, but here I want to focus on the role of the blogosphere in the scientific process.

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FAA-Style Regulation for the Financial Sector?

January 26, 2012

A post by Paul Romer

I suggested in a recent paper that regulation of financial institutions could look less like the legalistic regulation at OSHA and more like the regulation at the FAA.  Dave Backus asked what it would look like in practice.  John Cochrane, the Chicago Booth financial economist and accomplished glider pilot, expressed doubt based on his own experience with the FAA.

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The Fed as Inflation Targeter

January 26, 2012

A post by Kim Schoenholtz

Today, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a major update of its framework for setting monetary policy. While the FOMC emphasizes its “dual mandate” (regarding inflation and employment), the new framework is fully consistent with an inflation-targeting central bank.

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Diamonds, dollars and deception

January 23, 2012

On a recent trip to his native Australia, John Asker heard an interesting story about diamonds, dollars and deception. It’s a fun story in itself; it also relates to some of the themes discussed in the Firms and Markets course (as well as Game Theory and Business Strategy). Here are the details. Read the rest of this entry »


Toward an Even More Transparent Fed

January 23, 2012
Monty Hall, of Let’s Make a Deal fame, aimed for suspense, but he knew that a little transparency could add to the tension of a game show. So he told contestants what prize was behind the winning door, but not which door it was. As they selected among the three doors, anxious contestants provided titillation for TV voyeurs. [Unintentionally, Monty provided a great lesson in probability: See herewhy it’s optimal for a contestant to switch the door selection after Monty (raising the suspense) reveals that an unselected door does not contain the prize.]Monetary policy should not be designed to heighten suspense, nor should it be aimed at voyeurs. Yet, as central bankers around the world now affirm, transparency usually is desirable because it makes policy more effective.

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Romer on rules

January 22, 2012
I ran across a link on Marginal Revolution to a cool piece by my colleague Paul Romer.  He ends with this:

“If we persist with a legalistic rule setting process, the opportunists will thrive. We will settle into a fatalistic acceptance of systemic financial crises, flash crashes, and ever more exotic forms of opportunism.”


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