Posts Tagged ‘China’

What’s up with China?

September 14, 2015

China has been a constant source of speculation in the econ group here. Some thoughts (quotes approximate):

  • Slowdown or crisis? Nouriel Roubini: “I don’t see a hard landing. Growth should be 6-6.5% over the next two years, 5% in the medium term.” That’s slower than we’ve seen, but would look pretty good anywhere else.
  • Impact on the US? Lew Alexander, at the CGEB’s forum last week, thought the impact on the US would be small: “The US is still to a remarkable degree a closed economy. A slowdown in China is not that big a deal to the US — unless there’s a financial crisis.” That fits lots of evidence that shows only modest relations between economic fluctuations across countries. The 2008-09 financial crisis was an obvious exception, but that’s the point: it was an exception.

Dealing with market volatility in China

August 31, 2015

From today’s FT:

A leading journalist at one of China’s top financial publications has admitted to causing “panic and disorder” in the stock market, in a public confession carried on state television.

The detention of Wang Xiaolu, a reporter for Caijing magazine, comes amid a broad crackdown on the role of the media in the slump in China’s stock market, which is down about 40 per cent from its June 12 peak. Nearly 200 people have been punished for online rumour-mongering, state news agency Xinhua reported at the weekend.

Two views of China

December 17, 2013

I ran across a couple comments recently about cheating and corruption in China, both interesting, but pointing in different directions. The first one, from Diane Coyle, concerns the academic world:   Read the rest of this entry »

The global economy isn’t a zero-sum game

July 26, 2013

Don’t tell Stan, but I got bored with Canadian football on TV last night and came across David Leonhardt of the Times on Charlie Rose. He made a comment we should all remember (my rough transcript):   Read the rest of this entry »

Favorite blogs

January 17, 2013

I polled colleagues and former students about their favorite blogs and compiled a list.  I added asterisks to some of my own favs, but you be the judge.  Comments welcome, either in the comments or by email.

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The quantity and quality of investment in China

January 9, 2013

MBA alum Aaron Butler asked about over-investment in China. Certainly investment rates over 40% of GDP are unusually high, but does China have too much capital? Those of us who follow China would summarize the situation somewhat differently:

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China v. SEC

December 12, 2012

There’s a fascinating battle going on between US and Chinese regulators over auditing standards. The best summary I’ve seen comes from Patrick Chonavec and includes:

China and the United States are on a collision course — over accounting. Last week, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged the Chinese affiliates of the world’s top five accounting firms with violating securities laws for refusing to hand over information on suspect Chinese companies to investigators. The move is the latest, most dramatic step in an escalating standoff that could easily lead to a financial version of Armageddon: the forcible (and unprecedented) delisting of all Chinese shares currently traded on U.S. exchanges.  …

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Growth in Europe and Asia

April 17, 2012

Franklin Allen gave a fascinating talk here today, sponsored by the China Initiative of the Center.   The issue is whether the emerging Asian economies can follow a different path from the European countries that developed before them.  Here’s my two-bullet take, but by all means read the paper, it’s filled with interesting stories and examples.

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More on China and India

February 28, 2012

From Mike Spence:

I am pretty optimistic about both China and India.  They have different challenges but they have both proven to have deep talent in both the private and public sectors, and they both have a flexible, pragmatic approach to policy.

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Spence on China and India

February 26, 2012

My colleague Mike Spence’s recent book  touches on a number of big-picture issues.  One is  the growth of emerging market economies:   they’re now more than half the world economy.  Another is the impact on developed economies, including the shift of low-skilled manufacturing activities to emerging markets.  It’s a good read.   Or you could watch Mike on Charlie Rose and at NYU Stern talking about related issues.

But what got my attention was this mention of China and India from a review by Daniel Gross in the Wash Post:

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