China has been a constant source of speculation in the econ group here. Some thoughts (quotes approximate):
- Slowdown or crisis? Nouriel Roubini: “I don’t see a hard landing. Growth should be 6-6.5% over the next two years, 5% in the medium term.” That’s slower than we’ve seen, but would look pretty good anywhere else.
- Impact on the US? Lew Alexander, at the CGEB’s forum last week, thought the impact on the US would be small: “The US is still to a remarkable degree a closed economy. A slowdown in China is not that big a deal to the US — unless there’s a financial crisis.” That fits lots of evidence that shows only modest relations between economic fluctuations across countries. The 2008-09 financial crisis was an obvious exception, but that’s the point: it was an exception.