The second quarter US GDP number is due tomorrow at 8:30am. We’ll have our eyes on two things:
- GDP Growth. The Bloomberg/Econoday calendar reports a consensus forecast of 1.1% (quarterly growth multiplied by four). This pessimistic outlook follows last month’s downward revision of first quarter growth from 2.5% (advance estimate) to 1.8% (third estimate). MacroAdvisors’ monthly estimates were -0.2% in both April and May.
- New benchmark. We’re likely to see extensive discussion of the BEA’s comprehensive revision, as they change their accounting procedures and report new estimates going back to 1929. The changes include treating intangibles (R&D, intellectual property) as investment and changing the treatment of pension contributions in income. The experts at the BEA say the immediate effect will be to raise GDP by about 3 percent. We don’t expect it to have much effect on growth rates.
Kim Schoenholtz will be near his phone if you have questions. :-)
Update (Jul 31): “Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2013.” Link here. (Ah, now we can celebrate, 1.7 rather than 1.1. )