If you’re following the US election, here are some links recommended by colleagues. Some of the best are from Joe Foudy, whose background in political science resurfaces at election time. Their recommendations:
- Intrade.com, esp the presidential futures. We look at this one all the time, but there have been recent allegations of manipulation.
- Iowa Electronic Markets, the pioneer of election futures, with presidential futures contracts on both the winner and the popular vote.
- Oddschecker, a British site that lists betting odds on the election from lots of sources. Also good practice converting odds ratios to probabilities.
- The New York Times’s FiveThirtyEight blog aggregates regional poll data and forms its own predictions. Great graphics, too. Foudy calls it the “gold standard.”
- State by state data from RealClearPolitics and Huffington Post.
If you have others you like, let me know and I’ll add them to the list. Also suggestions for other countries.